- Published in: "Cinco Días" (spanish economic newspaper)
- Authors: Pedro Tellería, Phil O´Donovan
- Date: December 7, 1993
In the first part of this article, we discussed four technologies that form the foundation of the evolution of telecommunications, describing the first two: variable bandwidth and wireless communications. In this second part, we conclude with the remaining two: intelligent networks and user-oriented product design.
Intelligent Networks
By the year 2000, telecommunications network operators will strive to increase their value-added by introducing improvements in network management, both in decision-making processes and infrastructure operations. Their goal will be to make the most of the intelligence embedded within the network itself, while relegating many terminal-based functions to the network layer.
A simple example is the fax market. The development of fax management networks will surpass today’s standalone fax terminals by offering functions such as message storage, on-demand transmission, or low-cost broadcasting to multiple destinations. By offering these enhanced features, telephone operators will compete directly with equipment manufacturers, who would gladly provide fax machines with added functionalities.
In the future, as profit margins from the mere sale of bandwidth decline, network operators will have increasing incentives to introduce improvements and services that capitalize on network intelligence.
From the user’s standpoint, intelligent networks will provide a high level of integration, allowing them to control both public and private networks, whether wired or wireless.
In the years to come, we will see a large number of agents offering intermediary services that interact dynamically with telecommunications networks on behalf of their clients. In short, they will modify network behavior to adapt it to each user, making it far more effective.
Currently, some telephone services — such as call forwarding and call waiting — are already available. In Spain, these are called “advanced services,” while in the United States they are known as “custom-calling.”
With intelligent network management, we will see the emergence of the “mobile office,” as the network itself will provide each individual with the bandwidth and services required, regardless of their location.
Moreover, the presence of controllers both at the client terminal and within the network will allow users to supply the system with the necessary information to perform certain tasks — such as finding a low-cost supplier or locating the phone number of a company that offers a desired service in a given country.
However, we should not expect that the availability of variable bandwidth will lead to the disappearance of other communication media such as books or radio. In reality, as new products and services emerge, existing ones will not be replaced but will assume new roles — much like television and radio coexist today, each serving different audiences. In fact, even by the year 2000, the fastest way to transfer a 100-gigabyte file from one place to another may still be a courier carrying a box of magnetic tapes.
User-Oriented Product Design
The services offered by new technologies will become increasingly simple, as customers will not be willing to memorize complex commands every time they want to use a new service — especially given the growing number and complexity of offerings. In fact, prototype voice-recognition systems are already being built that can understand unstructured dialogue, adapt to a user’s characteristics, and act with a certain degree of initiative.
In the future, there will be applications where these advanced systems will be indistinguishable from those operated by humans.
At the same time, advances in portable electronic technology are enabling increasingly compact devices with greater functionality. Soon there will be no reason why a portable unit cannot incorporate the features of a phone, pager, electronic organizer, calculator, fax terminal, or game console. Cost-benefit analyses will have to accompany product development projects to justify such sophisticated devices.
The future will have truly arrived — some say it already has — when the number of functions per cubic centimeter of electronic equipment is no longer the decisive factor in product success. Instead, what will matter most is how accessible and usable those functions are. For instance, watches that include calculators and organizers already exist, but only a few technology enthusiasts use them, as most people find them too complex to understand or operate. There is a practical limit both to comprehension and to the physical manipulation of buttons.
By understanding the relationships between users and the problems they face, we will be able to identify their real needs. This understanding will allow us to design better human-machine interaction systems — a crucial step if we want the benefits of new technologies to be truly accessible to all.
User-oriented product engineering will ease the interaction between people and systems, smoothing the discontinuity that currently exists between devices and humans. It will allow users to incorporate their own interaction styles. Moreover, interfaces will become increasingly adaptable to our needs as they evolve.
Our personal communicators will include tools to help us prepare documents, organize our schedules, and plan events. They will communicate directly with office information systems, enabling us to work more efficiently. Our ability to handle these portable devices will depend on the power and simplicity of the user interface.
A Matter of Expectations
The extent to which telecommunications will influence our lives in the year 2000 will largely depend on our expectations.
Optimists believe telecommunications will eliminate monotonous work, making it more interesting and giving people greater control over what they do and how they do it.
Pessimists, on the other hand, predict that we will be overwhelmed by advertising and, instead of the expected increase in useful channels, we will waste much of our time responding to unwanted calls and intrusions across multiple communication platforms.
Ultimately, technology is just a tool. Its power to simplify or complicate our lives lies in our hands. In the coming century, the most profitable businesses will succeed because they understand how to use technology effectively in support of their goals.
To position themselves to explore global markets, technological options, and new work models, the companies of the year 2000 will need to strike a balance between flexibility and diversity on one hand, and a strong corporate culture and shared objectives on the other.
There will be clear advantages for those willing to exploit the telecommunications technologies of the year 2000. Among them are the ability to bring together companies and clients through high-contact communication channels — fostering brand loyalty and corporate partnerships — enhancing individual work flexibility, and breaking down interdepartmental barriers.
At the same time, the introduction of technology will not, by itself, bring change — as shown by the failure of the Telepoint service in the United Kingdom. Ten years ago, much was said about the “paperless office.” The fact that today’s offices still use as much paper as ever demonstrates people’s resistance to changing behavior unless the benefits are clearly perceived.
A company is essentially a structure that integrates people and machines. As soon as these elements interact, we are forced to understand the organic relationships between systems and the coherence of their technical specifications.
By the year 2000, telecommunications technologies will undoubtedly be powerful — but also expensive if underused, and, worse, demotivating if they fail. System breakdowns can paralyze an organization and alienate clients, as shown by numerous complaints about voice-mail and other telecom failures in several regions of the United States.
It will likely take decades after the year 2000 before we can fully exploit all human senses and the potential of virtual reality in professional activities that depend on telecommunications.
However, as the transmission of high-definition images and high-fidelity sound over communication networks becomes economically viable — probably by the year 2000 or shortly thereafter — new tools will emerge that give companies competitive advantages.
The high-performance company of the year 2000 will distinguish itself by how effectively it harnesses available telecommunications technologies — not merely to increase efficiency in existing (and often outdated) work methods, but to redefine them entirely.
- Pedro Tellería is a Senior Consultant, responsible for the "Telecommunications & Information Industry" Practice for Spain and Portugal at the management consulting firm Arthur D. Little.
- Phil O´Donovan is head of telecommunications at CCL, a subsidiary of Arthur D. Little.